KENYA AND CHINA OBOR

It's time to look into the situation of Kenya establishing new economic relationship with China.

One belt one road initiative is now into action in the region by developing infrastructures in Kenya financed by China. The Standard Gauge Rail has been constructed back few years ago,  and things show differently in Kenya. That instead of favorable advantage for this small country to prosper and benefit in the OBOR initiative, it seems that at this fresh start, Kenya is put at a losing position pushing the country into debts with China.

First of all, the disparity of the the two countries together can be viewed largely as a  railroading and undermining the opportunities and capabilities of Kenya to have equal opportunities in the OBOR. 

The loans are from Chinese owned state banks, and the contractors to built the projects only belongs to Chinese firms, and majority of the labor supply comes from them. By this effect, the employment opportunities are lost for the Kenyans under  the relationship of these two countries.

Forty percent of about 3,500 workers needed for construction will be foreign, mostly Chinese, according to a filing with the National Environment Management Authority, reported in local media this week. The rest of the jobs will go to locals.

That Chinese companies import labor from China rather than hire locally is a criticism echoed across Africa, but particularly strong in Kenya where youth unemployment is the highest in the region.

“A project that will bring all workers from China, save for a few hundred manual jobs,” one user wrote on Facebook in response to Amu Power’s filing. “All we will benefit from is the environmental degradation and health effects that will be with us for many generations,” he added.  

The worst thing about Kenya’s new power plant isn’t that Chinese workers are being brought in to build it

In this view, we can see that the situation is all favorable to China which sells the OBOR to some 65 countries, financing their infrastructures to over a trillion dollars facilitated by it's state owned banks, provide construction services and  supply labor, and so on, in a one way scheme favoring only China.

Noticeably, China finance, procure, and supply everything from materials into labor using their local Yuan currencies, yet the whole loan amount is then charged to Kenya by the US dollar. The disparity and inequality exist in the relation. 

That while in the start of the OBOR concept, it's infrastructure building, China can be seen as already gaining advantage and profits even before actual OBOR takes into action.

The problem of Kenya now is the piling debts with China that would eventually ruin their economy.

IS CHINA RAILROADING KENYA INTO DEBT?

What seems to be the case of OBOR is that no countries can win it for actual trading with China, seeing it as the FACTORY OF THE WORLD, countries like Kenya and many others, will find difficulty counter trading with her and sooner along the way, it's economy will be in pure  debt, that eventually will find the situation very difficult to escape.

What is the relation of this news piece and article to our own situation in the Philippines.?

In seeing Kenya, we can say that the Philippines is heading towards the same direction as it is there we find these two countries  Kenya and  Sri Lanka. 

They're already in serious debt trouble.

At the current, the Philippines is entering in an era where Kenya and Sri Lanka had also gone into. We have been seeking soft loans from China, under agreement of railway projects in Luzon financed by Chinese state owned banks, and subsequently, there's no doubt that it will be importing Chinese labor just like in the pattern of Kenya.

Now, to make the situation more complicated, China is given the opportunity to become our third Telco Player will substantially embed more the force of China in other channel of our security.  It seems we are not only duplicating the experiences of Sri Lanka and Kenya, but doing more trouble difficult  for ourselves.

The best way to do now for the Philippine is to avert the situation on depending so much from China. There are aplenty of ways that we can spur our economic growth without attaching ourselves to more foreign debts , as there are many ways to kill a chicken. 

We need to focus on manufacturing. Create better environment for our local and foreign investors, and make business in the country the fastest, easiest, and in most convenient manner to be more competitive with our Asian neighboring countries. 

Everything in economy is about competition for the business environment, otherwise there will be no hope that the country  will ever prosper.

Kenyan rail workers are protesting against their Chinese employer for a raise—to $5 a day

THE SELF-DEFENSE POSTURE PROGRAM

The news piece regarding the proposed acquisition of two new naval frigates for the Philippine Navy, in the recent article involving the name of the executive Chief of Staff Bong Go, came to light Presidential 415 of former President Marcos that would solve and save the government the needed funds, and for all of the government's acquisitions for the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines today.

There is that neglect of the PD 415 of March 19, 1974, that would cause the Philippines spur of trade and commerce and save the much need foreign reserves of the country.

The Self-Reliant Defense Posture Program needs tot undertake manufacturing on the needs of the military and the Police for its arsenal and equipping the military substantial armaments and armed materials that would secure the country's defense and sovereignty.

The project of the former president is about our defensive posture that would initialize military projects particularly in manufacturing, and its implementation wil spur industrial and commercial activity that will conserve the conserve the government of our foreign exchange resources.

If implemented, our habitual manner of purchasing these new naval frigates can be stopped, and manufacturing can start under this scheme to produce more through partnerships, investments in the country and spur productions of these naval hardwares.

Defense Chief revives SDRP 

MALL HOURS CUTTING

The traffic problem in the metropolis is not frankly at fault of the malls or businesses in the vicinity, but rather, it reflects effective governance.

On the side of the government, knowing that growth of the private and business sector is increasing and data of car population is coming, their studies and projections could have coped with that proportions to augment new infrastructure projects that could have abated congestion of roads.  

It shows that there were lapses in the government where the problems now in road congestions were not studied and planned.

EXTREME ENGINEERING

We have not heard of any extreme engineering projects laid in the cities to create gargantuan road networks as preparation for the scenarios of the future.

It is only now that we are suffering and clamoring for more roads in symphonic magnitude to answer transport woes of the country.

GDP AND GROWTH

We cannot restrain the private and business sectors to reduce just to solve in the cities, the proposal is antagonistic to growth by any terms of economic point of view.

Economy is made by the  rate of the growth of the private business and commercial activities of our people. We cannot stop or reduce their output because there is a traffic problem for it will mean a negative effect to the economy and retardant to growth.

GOVERNMENT ENCOURAGEMENT OF BUSINESSES.

The role of the government must be a continuing studies and research about keeping the city alive regardless to the amount of malls, business population which is indicative of economic prosperity. 

In other words, the government must pursue more the enrichment of trade and commerce, its promotion and assistance to the brink that it will create economic power for the country.

Instead of reduction, expansion.

On the contrary, it is better to promote businesses to operate more 24/7 to trifle the economic growth rate. If we are going at 6 percent, we will have 18 percent by the 3 shifting hours of business operations.

The 24/7 for manufacturing, trade, and exports will trifle the export growths thae will cure trade imbalances and meet the needed level of progress in a short time. 

This contrary idea is possible and very positive if there  our governance has that willingness for growth.

The liberal approach towards trade and commerce will accelerate our GDP rates and progress, thereby eradicating poverty.

Economic power is possible.

FEDERALISM AND GOOD GOVERNANCE

The shift to Federalism of our form of constitution, government is a treacherous path to take that it will cost the people, our country in general all the unseen dangers and disasters it may bring to an uncharted path of our future.

Of course there are many reasons for the need to change our system from presidential to federalism, and as understood,  it is progress of the country that is at stake.

PROGRESS

It can be an argument that we can attain/achieve progress at every kind of mode, system, or path if we are willing.

Admitted that we have not achieved progress today because of some reasons of failure. 

Our failure are due to corruption, politics, and loss of sound economic policies of the government to address investments, industries, ventures, partnerships, technology transfers, focus on trade & commerce, vibrant exports thru manufacturing.

If in the foregoing was only done satisfactorily, being mindful of regional competition, using our crab mentality in international matters on fighting trade imbalances, market shares and global trade superiority, there wasn't be such thing as a shift to another form of government, in fact we may not think of any shift, but remain in presidential system.

With wealth to economy, there is no thinking of changing the system of our government.

CULTURE

Our culture is considered to be the most feared and danger  of shift of our constitution into federalism.

Federalism divides power  into regional levels, and the relation of our negative culture is it will fuel more dynasticism favoring the rich and powerful. 

We are not ignorant to vote buying, intimidation, impunity, coercion of politics that will perpetuate more the culture conducive under the federalized state. Thus our culture of patronage and dirty politics will thrive more in this condition.

Progress then is uncertain under this kind of atmosphere on the bad side of our culture.

MOVE ON

The most viable alternative to progress is to MOVE ON, use more of the powers of our constitution to mobilize our resources, cut corruption, improve our economic policies, and use the platform to jump up the economy under the current condition and reach the goal of progress.

GOOD GOVERNANCE

There is no argument to fight on whether it is presidential or federal, the common denominator  is good governance.

Both has the same objective, that is progress, in the accepted fact that both has that capability for progress. 

With good governance, Presidential is good.

Federal would be bad if there is bad governance, or the vice versa. 

Dis-satisfaction exist because of BAD GOVERNANCE.

With GOOD GOVERNANCE, do we need to change our form of government?

THE FIRST MADE IN VIETNAM CAR

Today, Vietnam has a very impressive car manufacturing industry that has thrive in  over many years, not like in the Philippines, our car manufacturing has been pegged to a level dependent on foreign investors automakers.

At the Moment, there are about six manufacturing giants operating in Vietnam that has started since the 90's that brought it's economy to a better position of its economy.

GM, ISUZU, THAKU, VINAXUKI, SAIGON MECHANICAL, MEKONG are those that had made it good for the industry in Vietnam.

We know that an economy is given good condition through industrialized condition via car manufacturing. 

Considering that auto parts are made of about 30,000 pieces, it would then equate to the same as 30,000 small manufactureres of parts that makes a good economy for  a country.

In Vietnam, with about six major manufacturing brands and makers, this would increase and spur trade ande commerce for the country.

The Jeepney and Bus Modernization in the Philippines is a good question at the moment.  Why can't the government enter the industry for the benefit of the modernization and keeping foreign reserves at bay and increase trade and commercial activity in the country?

The situation n where the government would want to modernize our mass transportation is very timely to enact car industry and manufacturing in the country.

The program can be a very good reason to modernize our economy, and industrialize it for this matter.

Technology transfer is not a problem to today's generation where the government can take into partnership with a foreign brand, and in agreement would be technology transfer.

the first vietnamese made car

BUS AND JEEP MODERNIZATION AND CAR MANUFACTURING

Why we need car manufacturing for the the Bus and Jeepney modernization program is because the situation of our economy is not healthy.

The continuance of spending of our dollars under these programs should not affect the condition of our reserves, that in fact the reverse should be done to make the reserve grown more. 

The new buses and Jeepneys are only assembled here, the majority componet is imported, and that would mean the exodus of our dollar reserves.

To have our onshore car manufacturing would mean saving of our foreign reserves.

The question of technology is out of the question at the moment, because transfer of technology is possible by arrangements with foreign investor/car maker in the country.

It is is only the self-will of our leaders to implement the nationalized scale of this industry in order to materialize car manufacturing and in turn realize Bus and Jeepney modernization at this expense saving mechanism.

Super Pilipinas is for modernization, but it should also be the catalyst for modernizing our economy and stop our dependence  abroad.

It is about talking for our self-reliance.

That the industry that would be build undr these modernizations, will diffuse into more tributary industries for military application that would secure our sovereignty and realize peace and order situation through gaining in these industries. 

It will spur trade and economy for the Country, and it will keep our foreign reserves stable.

Think. 

bus modernization

The collapsed of Venezuelan.Economy

It would be good to understand the situation of the Venezuelan economy today, that we cannot ignore such thing that might make our condition fall the same if unabated under the signs that would lead us to that turmoil.

With an inflation of 946 percent, a dozen of eggs in the market for 150 US dollars, and poverty at 82 percent, is something that a government like this very much dependent on oil exports will likely to fall more and collapse.

The government's strategy of funding the poor, health, education, and all others that had depleted its financial resources just to make the presidency of Chavez and later with Maduro, and with political moves of supressing the opposition, the supreme courts, changing the constitution,  are things of similar nature and path with the Philippines in the making. The tangent situation is early, and can be abated if things are done accordingly that will prevent such matters to occur and turned worse.

In turn, our advocacy of strengthening trade and exports that would sustain our inflow of US dollars, and contain the rate of peso fall would prevent the situation to occur.

Under this situation, we must make an atmosphere of business promotion and encourage both our local capitalists, small, and micro in size that would would absorb unemployment rate of the country. Self-employment through these small gestures of businesses, well assisted by the government will make the economy sustain itself, and be developed into more extended trade for exports.

There are many things that should be considered at the moment to maintain the economic situation to attain growth. The Jeepney and Bus modernization program that the government would implement by this year if done or acquired through offshore car manufacturers like Japan would defeat the economy, and favor Japan for that transaction.

Other things that might affect our foreign reserve at the moment will likely affect the condition of the Philippine economy.

  

CAR MANUFACTURING AND THE PHILIPPINES

Why is the subject of car manufacturing is important to be given attention today, that it should be accepted and viewed as an economic driver of the country?

And that, why is it important that we should take the opportunity of jeepney modernization program of the government must be the means, or excuse to jump into this industry now, and initiate both programs?

Well, everybody knows that car manufacturing makes an economy.

That car manufacturing will spur trade and commerce in the country, an employment generator, revenue source, and most of all technology transfer will be gained and flow to create more industries that would contribute to industrialization of the country.

Other than car manufacturing, ship building, aviation, marine, military, modernization , and most of all self- reliance.

Vietnam has already initiated its car manufacturing, that at this information, something in our governance must take the initiative to race with the growth of our neighbors and level the pride.

Why do we refuse car manufacturing?

Technology is not the reason, it's our negative attitude towards technology makes the reason.

In one television talk show about Jeepney Modernization represented by the LTFRB and the Piston, made this admission on the side of the government to use the complaint of our technology issue being not capable to car manufacturing today. 

While the party on the side of Piston asserting car manufacturing is being denied by the government that modernization of jeepneys must start from offshore, the importation of vehicles, parts from Japan mostly.

The admission, or answer by our official in position of the government that it cannot engage into car manufacturing because of our poor technology and know how is self-ruining.

  

As in the video, the Piston presented its view on car manufacturing, while the side of the government admits, that 

"Hindi Kaya, for how long, we don't know" -LTFRB

Practically, what we see is the blatant refusal of the government to enter into manufacturing, that the modernization program is opposed by the jeepney sector in the scheme that it will hurt the economy due to it will spend our kept dollar reserves.

Technology transfer is all deemed not viable on their perspective, they've perceived technology transfer as a thing impossible to happen.

On the other side of the moderator, upon accepting the argument to be true, failed to assist the idea to be taken to where she would possibly suggest. She is not an advocate of technology, manufacturing, trade, because her experience was from the government. Knowing she found good reason of manufacturing and technology transfer, she bats to dispute and assail the proposal not submitted in the forum of congress, and help the situation thru her capacity. A Filipino should help a Filipino, while in this argument, there is no lending hand to fill the gap of the proposal to reach proper forum as she  suggested.

Above is just a sample incidence where we find the side of the government as not for manufacturing and even seeking that matter for the country.

We must stop our arrogance to manufacturing, technology transfer, trade, exports, and commerce as the only thing that will directly solve the ills of the economy of this country.

At this point, super Pilipinas do not delve on the mechanics of the Jeepney modernization program, it's only concern is the manufacturing and self-production, or nationalization of a car  industry in the country which until now the country do not have.

This blog is only meant to use the advantage of the program to timely initiate the car manufacturing, that will also result to savings of the government of its foreign reserves, and most of all self-reliance, and the creation of many more industries that maybe opened up, made by the car manufacturing.

ONE BELT ONE ROAD AND THE PHILIPPINES

In the outset, the idea of China about the one belt one road initiative is good and on the other hand deceptive.

The concept was of China, and  understandably, trade, economics, and global connection of about 60 countries through infrastructure to be made is that will link them and conduct smooth and fast trades among them.

Why did China proposed the idea at this time, and why was not proposed before a long time ago?

The question rings some important considerations to think about that the timing of the OBOR today has something to do with China having the advantage of the program.

Some 30 years ago, China was nothing economically, and of course it has no capacity to conceptualize the the OBOR because she has no economic power to trade at that time.

Because 30 years before, OBOR is of a disadvantage to them, practically unfavorable. That's why, after its economic power today, their emphasis on OBOR is a matter that should be understood of its pros and cons to China.

What if long before, the EU propose to China the OBOR, a kind of a reverse situation, that EU, being economically powerful have tons of products ready to trade with everyone, aimed to particularly take advantage of the market size of China which in that situation before, China being economically weak, is in short the disadvantage in trade position, will become the recipient, loser on trade.

That now, China has this power to trade with 60 countries whom they view as easy to be overwhelmed by their  products. 

China currently hold the position as  the Factory of the world.

Now that China is that ready, she proposes the OBOR.

Even without OBOR, China has already defeated major countries in trade through their cheap products, and much more, under the emphasis of OBOR, more defeating and worsening matters will flood the 60 countries involved to be affected economically, and financially becomes the trap of China.

With China soon to replace the US dollar as the world currency, the OBOR is the best advantage to her.

With her financial might today, she will replace the IMF World Banks, and the red buck as the new world currency is even at her advantage to make OBOR her tool.

How the Philippines may defend itself with or without OBOR? 

We must first strengthen our manufacturing condition, expand trade and exports as mean to reduce foreign reserve spendings caused by rising importations. We must industrialize, and create an ecosystem of industrialization.

Our economy will fall if our trade falls.

At the moment, while OBOR is still in the process in building infrastructures of highways, airports, ports, electricity, and many others are things to be seen for the next ten years or so. That once everything is in place and system running, we will know the realities of unfair trade practices and flow that might crop up.